Where oh Where will MySQL go?

Well it's been just over a day since the announcement of the Oracle/Sun announcement. A lot has been said about the match, some good, some bad. Most note (as did I) that the Java and Hardware additions to Oracle are a plus and that there's a bit of overlap.

One of the most interesting elements of overlap is MySQL.

Sun and Oracle have been going tit-for-tat with acquisitions going back to Waveset/Thor a couple of years ago in the IdM space. Oracle has been doing the same thing with SAP trying to build its own version of NetWeaver and an ERP suite. Now all three companies have the same basic arsenal of products with their own specialties:

1. Sun offers both hardware/OS layers, Java, and is the Elder statesman of the IAM space
2. Oracle offers the database and is showing great momentum in the IdM and ERP spaces
3. SAP offers an ERP suite with tight integration via NetWeaver

I can't see that regulators will allow Oracle to hold onto MySQL while they hold the lion's share of the database market (44.3%) Given this I wonder what Oracle plans to do with MySQL. They could move it back to open source and set up an independent organization to manage it, but this does not seem to mesh with the Oracle Corporate Culture, which has not been historically been keen on open source.

My thinking is that SAP should try to acquire it and I wonder why they did not make a try at this before. My SQL is already the basis for MaxDB and would address a major missing piece of the SAP architecture. Being able to control both the front and back end of the SAP solution set would offer a new level of cohesion for NetWeaver and place it on a more equal footing with Oracle. However, I don't foresee a direct transaction to occur between Oracle and SAP. Look for the spin off to occur and SAP to make the acquisition as soon as they think they can get away with it.

I don't think SAP will pass on this opportunity a second time.